Community Discussion
r/programming
Software dev job postings are up 15% since mid 2025
Been watching this FRED data for a while. Software development job postings on Indeed hit a low point around May 2025, then climbed steadily for 10 months straight and are now sitting about 15% higher than that trough.
When a developer shared data showing tech job postings climbing steadily upward, it sparked something special in the programming community. Nearly 200 developers weighed in with their experiences, fears, and insights about what's really happening in our industry. What emerged wasn't just data analysis but a raw, honest conversation about the challenges and changes reshaping software careers.
The original post challenged the dominant narrative that AI is killing developer jobs. Instead, the data suggested something different: steady growth, not decline. But the community's responses revealed a much more complex picture of what it's really like to navigate today's tech job market.
The Market for Lemons: Why Good Developers Feel Invisible
There's an obvious concerted effort to push wages down with synchronized layoffs and more gaslighting about it. Companies also seem to have almost completely lost the ability to recognize talent and are *deeply* insecure about it. I've never seen so many grifters in tech (especially at C level) who have *no* clue what they are doing. The worst part is that it's become harder to signal competence in this environment coz the people holding the purse strings are now dumber and the signals they used to rely upon no longer function.
The core issue is clear: developers are being evaluated by people who can't recognize quality work. When hiring managers lack technical depth, traditional signals of competence like clean code, elegant solutions, and thoughtful architecture become completely invisible.
The economic theory mentioned here, the market for lemons, offers a sobering lens. When buyers (employers) can't distinguish between high-quality and low-quality sellers (candidates), the market deteriorates. Good developers become discouraged and may leave the field entirely, while less qualified candidates flood the space.
The Ghost Job Reality Check
For every one legitimate role, there are 10 posts from recruiters. They duplicate, reword, and repost in the name of "anonymizing" the client, with different pay bands, job titles, and search terms.
Job posting inflation is a real problem in the current market. Many job boards are filled with duplicate postings, expired listings, and roles that companies aren't actively filling. This creates an illusion of abundant opportunities while making the actual job search much more difficult than the numbers suggest.
We need laws about anonymous job posting and ghost jobs. If I'm applying to a career position i need some reassurances that it's not a scam.
Tailoring resumes and writing cover letters for phantom positions wastes time and creates systematic demoralization. The process becomes a numbers game where the numbers themselves are inflated.
The AI Plot Twist Nobody Expected
All, bar none, of the 'Implement AI' projects that his clients had set up in 2025 were ended and all had moved to a 'see how it goes' approach to AI. In turn this meant they are hiring actual people again.
The AI revolution may have stalled, at least in its most aggressive implementations. Companies that rushed to "AI-ify" everything are quietly returning to human-powered solutions. This recruitment insider's perspective suggests the pendulum is swinging back toward hiring real developers for real problems.
While headlines scream about AI replacing developers, actual companies are discovering that implementing AI solutions is far more complex than the hype suggested. Someone still needs to architect systems, integrate tools, and solve the messy real-world problems that don't fit neatly into AI's current capabilities.
The Great Reorganization: Big Tech to Small Tech
I really do think that there's just a massive reorganization going on from big tech -> smaller tech. The amount of new tech & startups coming on the scene is insane.
This observation captures something crucial: jobs aren't disappearing, they're shifting. While household-name tech companies grab headlines with layoffs, smaller companies, startups, and traditional businesses embracing digital transformation are quietly hiring. The opportunities are there, but they just look different than they did five years ago.
15%
Increase in Job Postings
Software dev roles up since mid-2025
3x
Job Growth
One recruiter's client load increased
10:1
Noise Ratio
Ghost jobs vs. legitimate openings
What This Means for Your Job Search
The community's wisdom points to several practical realities. First, the signal-to-noise ratio in job postings has never been worse. This means quality over quantity becomes even more critical in your applications. Instead of spraying resumes at every posting, focus your energy on roles where you can make genuine connections.
Key Insights from the Community
- Job postings are up, but ghost jobs inflate the numbers significantly
- AI implementation projects are scaling back, creating human hiring needs
- Opportunities are shifting from big tech to smaller, nimbler companies
- Technical competence is harder to signal when non-technical people make hiring decisions
- The market is reorganizing, not disappearing
When job boards feel overwhelming, remember that many of those postings aren't real opportunities. Focus on companies where you can research the actual team, understand their genuine challenges, and demonstrate relevant value. Quality connections beat quantity applications every time.
Perhaps most importantly, this discussion reveals that you're not alone in finding the current job market confusing and frustrating. The challenges you're experiencing, including ghost jobs, unclear requirements, and lengthy processes, are systemic issues, not personal failings.